ISSUE #7: Poverty

• Last 5 years, e.g. 2018 Q3 - 2024 Q1 = https://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/statistics/benefit/index.html > National level data tables - [month] 2023 [click on ‘Summary table - last 5 years’ worksheet]
• 5 years before that, e.g. = https://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/statistics/benefit/archive-2018.html
• 5 years before that again = https://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/statistics/benefit/archive-2013.html
• Benefit definitions = https://www.msd.govt.nz/documents/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/statistics/benefit/2023/bfs-t1-stats-information-jun-23.pdf
• Populations = https://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/ > Population > Population Estimates - DPE > Estimated Resident Population by Age and Sex (1991+) (Qrtly-Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec) [chose all ages from 18-64, and select ‘As at’] [NOTE: Q1 data is not in here yet, so an approximation needs to be done by adding the Q3 to Q4 population growth onto the Q4 to Q1 figure]

Data not used

• Weekly Main Benefits Timeseries since we can't see their %s workings, the data only goes back to 2022, and we can't see where the latest data file is. We have asked these questions of MSD, and also for how many 65+ adults receive main benefits rather than superannuation. https://www.msd.govt.nz/documents/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/statistics/weekly-reporting/2023/sep/data-file-income-support-weekly-update-22-september-2023.xlsx

Frequency:

• Quarterly

Updated:

• 20 days

Last update:

• 2024 Q1 = 18 Apr 2024

Next update:

• 2024 Q2 = 18 Jul 2024

Why this KPI?

• In 2018, the Labour-led Government created 9 child poverty metrics, and these were the most commonly referenced poverty measures by the Labour-led Government. We haven’t used these because:
  • They only measure child poverty, not all poverty. Many households don’t have children.
  • The 9 measures are only really 2 with multiple variations.
    • The 7 metrics containing ‘X% living below Y% of the median’ for differing financial measures isn’t a great KPI as it doesn’t measure if all of society is struggling or thriving more, just a comparison to the median. For example:
      • It’s possible, if not likely, with 6-7% annual inflation for 7 consecutive quarters (possibly 8 once the Q3 data is released), that a growing number of individuals are now in poverty, even if the bottom incomes are growing faster than the median via minimum wage or benefits increases.
      • If the cost of living decreases relative to incomes, which it did for food for 20 years when we look at the Household Incomes vs the Food Index up to March 2022 , or there is state intervention like free school lunches which is not recorded as income, then that can reduce poverty levels even if the incomes of the lowest earners aren’t growing as fast as the median.
      • These same limitations apply to the all-ages data set too.
    • The DEP-17 scores look to be a better poverty measure for children and all other ages too; asking 17 good questions that would reflect a situation of poverty, however:
      • The full data showing the % of households against each DEP-17 score from 0 to 17 does not appear to be published anywhere, only the % that scored 6+ (defined as 'material hardship') or 9+ (defined as 'severe material hardship'). We have sought clarity from Stats NZ on this question and all others below.
      • The full time series for all years also does not appear to be published. It appears as though his DEP-17 data series started in 2018. We don't know if the June 2023 year results are published yet.
      • We have not seen the research design (questions, options, sampling) to have confidence in the approach.
      • 2 questions relate to meat consumption, so we don't know how vegetarians are scored for those measures.
      • Other questions have a degree of choice and relate to values, e.g. buying gifts for others, or wanting to pay for home contents insurance versus choosing 'self-insurance.' We are not sure how that is considered in the scoring.
      • Table 12 mentions 'Material wellbeing index', but this has not been well defined. We suspect it is the reverse of the Dep-17, e.g. a DEP-17 score of 0, 1, 2 = a 15+ Material Wellbeing score, but it could be a different type of measurement altogether.
• The amount of discretionary income in (inflation-adjusted) $ terms could be a great measure. Table 3 looks to have this information, but it hasn’t been inflation-adjusted despite the references to a 2017/18 based year. We have asked Stats NZ if they've done these calculations. If not, we've asked them if we can use the RBNZ inflation calculator (CPI), as a fair and accurate way to calculate this.
• Homelessness and people living in cars, might be in the Census data, although the last data set available is 2018. We have asked for more information on these measures.
• Given all of these limitations above, we turned to other leading authorities:
  • Oxford definition: poverty = the state of being poor
  • When experts speak about the 'poverty trap' or 'poverty cycle,' they closely correlate this to inter-generational social welfare dependence on the state.
• As such, poverty is predominantly a financial issue, whether that is an adult or a child reliant on an adult or adults. And the best indicator of financial stress/someone's income being insufficient to cover the cost of living, is arguably whether you require financial assistance from the state/fellow taxpayer. The most common measure here is the percentage of working-age (18-64) adults on a main benefit.
• The total number of adults on ANY benefit is not published at this stage, only the main benefits. We have asked MSD for this data.

Discarded

The 7 poverty reduction metrics with ‘X% living below X% of the median’ for differing financial measures.

• For the reasons mentioned above, getting closer to the median value doesn’t mean you’re being lifted out of poverty, especially if everyone in society is struggling more under cost of living pressures.

Official unemployment rate.

• Unfortunately, we can’t use the official unemployment rate to measure poverty either, as the unemployment rate has a major flaw. If you work for just 1 hour per week, for free, mowing a friend’s lawn, you are considered 100% employed, not 2.5% employed (1/40) and 97.5% unemployed (39/40). There is no weighting, only a binary classification whereby 1 hour of work is considered employed for the week. There are several other issues with how this is calculated too, e.g. it uses 30 not 40 hours as a full working week, so it’s far from a true unemployment rate.

Related facts

• % of adults on each type of main benefit (2022 data)
• 18-24 year-olds on main benefits (2022 data)
• School attendance by region, decile, and ethnicity (2022 data)
• Public housing applications (2022 data)
• Emergency housing grants (2022 data)
• Drug wastewater testing
• Official unemployment rate vs Jobseeker benefit (2022 data)
• Also see:
  • Cost of living
  • Child immunisation rates

Wishlist

With support, we’ll be able to add multiple KPIs for each issue:

• True unemployment rate
• Updates on many of KPIs listed above.
• DEP-17 scores for all ages
• % of people living in cars
• Homelessness
• Emergency food grants
• Child-specific:
  • % of dependent children for working-age people on main benefits (we have this data)
  • Hardship and severe hardship as measured by DEP-17 scores
  • % of children living in cars.

Governments over the timeframe shown

• 1999 = Labour/Alliance + Green
  2002 = Labour/Progressive + United
  2005 = Labour/Progressive + United, NZ First
  
  
• 2008 = National + ACT, United, Māori
  2011 = National + ACT, United, Māori
  2014 = National + ACT, United, Māori
  
  
• 2017 = Labour/NZ First + Green
  2020 = Labour+Green

Sources:1,2 (see table)

Data published by Ministry of Social Development
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Licensed for use under the creative commons attribution licence (BY) 4.0

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