AKA: government confidence, governance, mood of the nation, quality of life
Key notes
- The net direction score is calculated by right direction % - wrong direction %, and we average this across the 3 polling companies that do this. Not every polling company does this over election or Christmas break months, so sometimes there are only 2, or even 1, data point. For November 2023, the average across all 3 pollsters was 31.5% right direction - 47.7% wrong direction = -16.2% net direction/Government confidence. For December, Roy Morgan measured -7%. For January, Curia measured +4%.
- Unlike the first 9 KPIs which were harder quantitative data sets, country direction is based on polling human feelings.
- Remember that each Labour-led or National-led government has had coalition partners which share the successes, and the failures, with them. A full list of governments for this time range are at the bottom of this page.
Data sources
Data shown:
- Net direction, as explained above.
- August 2007 onwards as that is when Roy Morgan started this measure.
Data not shown:
- The Post Freshwater Strategy = appears to be a one-off poll, and is behind a paywall.
- Talbot Mills = for private clients only, but sometimes leaked. We have asked them if we can include their data and are awaiting a reply.
Full data:
Frequency:
- Monthly (although the Taxpayer's Union-Curia and Essential polls are on a break following their November releases)
Updated:
- Usually within a week, but there are delays over Christmas.
Last update:
- Roy Morgan = 8 Mar 2024 (Feb result)
- Curia = 8 Mar 2024 (Mar result)
- Essential = 15 Nov 2023
Next update:
- Roy Morgan = early April
- Curia = early April
- Essential = unsure if it will start again
Why this KPI?
- While the other 10 KPIs address specific issue areas within society, country direction/Government confidence is arguably the best overall measure of how a country thinks it’s going.
- This is why we put it last to finish with an overall score, but we don’t give it a number since it can’t be specifically tested or ranked versus specific issues.
Discarded
None
Related facts
Wishlist
With support, we’ll be able to add multiple KPIs for each issue:
- Updates on many of KPIs listed above.
- Other confidence scores:
- Trust of the Government
- Rating of Government policies overall
Governments over the timeframe shown
- 1999 = Labour/Alliance + Green
2002 = Labour/Progressive + United
2005 = Labour/Progressive + United, NZ First
- 2008 = National + ACT, United, Māori
2011 = National + ACT, United, Māori
2014 = National + ACT, United, Māori
- 2017 = Labour/NZ First + Green
2020 = Labour + Green
Sources:1,2 (table 5).
© Roy Morgan
© Curia
© Essential
Republished with permission
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